The Coming Storm

 

written by STEVE ULRICH your must-read briefing on what's driving the day in NCAA Division III     >> Good Wednesday morning.  >> Today's Word Count: 1,343 words >> Thanks for reading D3Playbook. Share our newsletter with a friend. >> @D3Playbook. Follow us on Twitter along with 2,264 others.   TOP STORY 1. The Coming Storm by Megan Zahneis, Chronicle of Higher Education "Already bracing for an enrollment crash expected to hit in 2025, higher education got more bad news this week: The U.S. birth rate fell 4 percent in 2020, marking the lowest number of births since 1979 and the sixth consecutive year of declining birth rates, according to a report released this week by the National Center for Health Statistics. Once that “demographic cliff” hits, the new data show, it won’t let up for more than a decade; babies born in 2020 won’t reach traditional college-going age until 2038. So enrollment managers who have already spent years stressing about declining birth rates and high-school graduation rates — some of the effects of which are already visible — should brace for the long haul, said Nanci Tessier, senior vice president at the Art & Science Group, a higher-education consulting firm. “What’s clear is that the years ahead are not going to be any easier,” said Tessier, who has worked as a chief enrollment officer at three institutions. “It’s just going to be more and more challenging for colleges and universities to be able to fill their seats.” >> Situational Awareness: "Birth rates could drop even further when 2021 data are tabulated, factoring in babies conceived during the pandemic, said Nathan D. Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College whose 2018 book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education awoke many colleges to the coming enrollment threat. (He) points to a June 2020 projection by Melissa S. Kearney, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and Phillip B. Levine, a professor of economics at Wellesley College, of 300,000 to 500,000 fewer U.S. births in 2021 because of the pandemic and corresponding economic recession.” >> History Lesson: "Demographic data from the 1970s and 1980s offers a useful lesson, said Todd Rinehart, president of the National Association for College Admission Counseling. Colleges countered low birth and high-school graduation rates by enrolling more women, buoying their enrollment numbers despite the demographic shift.This time around, raising college-going rates for low- and middle-income students, and students of color — especially Latina/o and Black students — will be crucial to maintaining enrollment numbers, he said." >> Takeaway: "That means colleges should shift their focus away from “tactical” measures to increase short-term enrollment and onto a more holistic view of the educational experience they offer. “If you’re not looking hard at what it is that you’re offering students, and you think you can market your way out of this, you just can’t,” Tessier said." >> Read More   GOLF 2.  Titans, Tartans Take Early Leads   The Illinois Wesleyan men and Carnegie Mellon women seized the team lead after round one of the NCAA Division III Golf Championships Tuesday. The Titans posted a six-over-par 290 to take a three-shot advantage over Huntingdon, while Saint John's is nine shots back. Webster's Will Hocker posted the low number on the day at 1-under 69 on the Palmer Course and shares the individual lead with IWU's Jimmy Morton and SJU's Glavine Schlugel who posted 1-under 70s on the Speidel Jones layout. >> Men's Leaderboard The Tartans forged a six-shot advantage over George Fox with a team score of 312, while Williams is eight back. Oglethorpe's Sarah Hsu fired a 74 and holds the individual lead after 18 holes. She eagled the par-5 8th hole to go along with 13 pars - tops in the field. >> Women's Leaderboard   WOMEN'S BASKETBALL 3.  Rules Committee Recap by Greg Johnson, NCAA "The NCAA Women’s Basketball Rules Committee on Friday proposed moving the 3-point line to the international distance of 22 feet, 1¾ inches, beginning with the 2021-22 season. All rule recommendations must be approved by the NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel, which is scheduled to discuss women’s basketball proposals June 3. The committee, which conducted a hybrid in-person/virtual meeting the past three days in Indianapolis, discussed the proposal thoroughly and looked at statistical trends that showed the number of attempted and successful 3-point field goal attempts reached all-time high levels in all three divisions during the 2020-21 season. Division III teams attempted 19.3 three-point field goal attempts per game last season and made an average of 5.7 shots beyond the arc, which currently is set at 20 feet, 9 inches. Elsewhere ... The committee proposed allowing the transmission of live statistics to the bench area for coaching purposes.    The committee also supported an experimental rule to allow teams to view live video in conference games only for the upcoming season should a waiver request be submitted.   The committee held discussions regarding players who fake being fouled. The committee is concerned that these tactics are being taught, and officials will be instructed to carefully monitor these situations. >> Continue Reading   MEN'S BASKETBALL 4.  Rules Committee Recap by Greg Johnson, NCAA "The NCAA Men’s Basketball Rules Committee on Friday recommended officials assess technical fouls to players who fake being fouled, beginning in the 2021-22 season.  All rule proposals must be approved by the NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel, which is scheduled to discuss proposed men’s basketball rules changes June 3.  Committee members, who held a hybrid in-person/virtual meeting this week in Indianapolis, think adding the technical foul component is the next step in hopes of eliminating this tactic from the game.   Under this proposal, officials would no longer issue a warning on the first occurrence when they judge that a player is faking being fouled. Instead, officials would assess a Class B technical foul to the player each time they judge a player is embellishing being contacted, and the opposing team would receive one free-throw shot. The player whistled for feigning a foul would not be assessed a personal foul." Also ... The committee proposed allowing the transmission of live statistics to the bench area for coaching purposes.   The committee supported an experimental rule to allow teams to view live video and pre-loaded video on their bench during conference games only for the upcoming season should the conference submit a waiver request for the experimental rule.     With a goal of having fewer stoppages in the game, the committee proposed that any timeout called by a team be designated as the media timeout provided that the media timeout has not already been used in that segment.     >> Continue Reading   RANKINGS 5.  Around the Diamond photo by Sarah Dudik This Week's NCBWA/D3Baseball.com Poll Washington, Mo. (19), 26-3 Washington & Jefferson (4), 33-1 UW-Whitewater, 30-4 Webster (1), 28-6 Salisbury, 21-4 Trinity, Texas, 28-7 Marietta, 26-4 North Central, Ill., 30-6 Rowan (1), 21-4 Babson, 12-2 11-15: Aurora, Adrian, Coe, NC Wesleyan, Wheaton (Mass.) 16-20: E. Connecticut, Shenandoah, Southern Maine, Berry, William Paterson 21-25: Oswego State, Corland, St. John Fisher, Gustavus Adolphus, Augustana >> Greetings: St. John Fisher, Gustavus Adolphus, Augustana >> Rising: UW-Whitewater (+5) >> Falling: Trinity (-4) >> Games to Watch: #7 Marietta vs. Mount Union (Sat/Sun.); #10 Babson vs. #15 Wheaton (Sat/Sun.); #13 Coe vs. Luther (Sat.); #22 Cortland vs. Brockport (Sat/Sun.); #14 N.C. Wesleyan vs. LaGrange (Sun.) >> Complete Poll   Try It: D3Playbook ROWING 6.  Championship Selections The NCAA Division III Women’s Rowing Committee has selected the institutions that will compete in the 2021 NCAA Division III Women’s Rowing Championships. The championships will be held May 28-29 at the Nathan Benderson Park in Sarasota, Florida, hosted by the University of Central Florida and Suncoast Aquatic Nature Center Associates. For 2021, the championships will be composed of six teams. Each team is required to field two boats of eight rowers and a coxswain.  Pool A Ithaca (Liberty), Washington College (Mid-Atlantic), Bates (NESCAC) Pool B/C Hamilton (NESCAC), Pacific Lutheran (Northwest), Wesleyan (NESCAC)   TRANSACTIONS 7.  Comings and Goings   ST. THOMAS, Minn. - Announced it will discontinue men's and women's tennis as varsity programs SKIDMORE - Emanuel Valentin named head men's and women's crew coach SWEET BRIAR - Announced the return of softball as a varsity sport beginning in spring 2023 WESTERN NEW ENGLAND - Brian Walsh will step away as head men's and women's cross country coach WITTENBERG - Ryan Thompson has resigned as head men's volleyball coach      Thanks for starting your day with us. Please invite your friends to sign up for D3Playbook.    It's Free: D3Playbook

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